Le CEIR annonce ses résultats du troisième trimestre 2020

Exhibition Industry Remains at a Standstill

DALLAS, 18 December 2020 – Le Centre de Recherche sur l’Industrie des Expositions (CEIR) reports that the exhibition industry remained at a grinding halt in the third quarter of 2020, with approximately 97% of originally scheduled events cancelled. As a result, the CEIR Total Index, a measure of exhibition industry performance, registered a 98.1% decline from a year ago (see Figure 1). The industry experienced a more moderate year-over-year decline of real (inflation-adjusted) GDP at 2.9%, which increased at an annual rate of 33.1% from the previous quarter. The latter had been somewhat boosted by continued reopening of businesses, strong residential investment, and online and other consumer goods purchases.

Figure 1: Real GDP vs. CEIR Total Index, 2020 Q1-Q3, Year-over-Year % Change

Despite the economic rebound enjoyed in the third quarter, the exhibition industry remained largely stalled given the persistence of COVID-19. A second wave of the virus in July prompted a number of states to pull back on reopening their economies and impose stringent group size limitations, all contributing to a lack of trade show activity. About 3% of events did take place as mostly small, regional events. The continuance of stringent rules imposed by states and municipalities, as well as ongoing no travel corporate policies, caused most events scheduled for the third quarter to be canceled or postponed to 2021. These two reasons are cited as the top two reasons why business-to-business (B2B) exhibition organizers say they were forced to cancel, according to CEIR’s June poll. These policies mute participation potential. Other opinion polls tracking consumer sentiment record reluctance to travel, with air travel continuing to remain well below 2019 levels.

Excluding the cancelled events during the third quarter, the Total Index dropped by 36.1%. All exhibition metrics posted sharp year-over-year declines. Attendees suffered the largest fall of 57.6% and exhibitors decreased 29.2%, whereas net square feet (NSF) tumbled 26.3%. Real revenues declined 24.6% from a year ago.

Figure 2: Quarterly CEIR Metrics for the Overall Exhibition Industry, Year-over-Year Growth, 2020Q3

The U.S. economy has been growing since May. With a sharp rebound in the third quarter, the real GDP was only 3.5% below its peak in the fourth quarter of 2019. Recent monthly economic indicators point to continued moderate growth in the fourth quarter, though newly imposed restrictions in some states will restrain recovery around the turn of the year. As a result of Congress failing to quickly pass a Phase 4 rescue plan combined with a relatively high rate of new COVID-19 cases, economic growth in the first quarter of 2021 is likely to slow significantly. Nonetheless, CEIR expects economic growth will accelerate again in the second quarter as more people are vaccinated and the impact of the Phase 4 rescue programs start to kick in. CEIR expects real GDP to surpass its previous peak in the third quarter of 2021.

« Les solides facteurs macroéconomiques sous-jacents devraient jeter une base solide pour soutenir le secteur des expositions B2B lorsque les gouvernements des États et locaux assoupliront les restrictions sur les rassemblements de groupe au cours du second semestre 2021 », a déclaré Allen Shaw, Ph.D., économiste en chef du CEIR. Associés de conseil économique mondial, Inc.

“The exhibition industry is transforming and innovating itself with a rise in virtual or hybrid events to fill the void while physical events are paused,” added CEIR CEO Cathy Breden, CMP, CAE, CEM. “With a full recovery in the economy and a majority of the population vaccinated, the recovery of B2B exhibitions should take hold in 2022.”

À propos du CEIR
Le Centre de recherche sur l'industrie des expositions (CEIR) sert à faire progresser la croissance, la notoriété et la valeur des expositions et autres événements marketing en face à face en produisant et en fournissant des outils de recherche basés sur les connaissances qui permettent aux organisations parties prenantes d'améliorer leur capacité à répondre aux besoins actuels et besoins émergents des clients, améliorer leurs performances commerciales et renforcer leur position concurrentielle. Pour plus d'informations, visitez www.ceir.org.


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Marie Tucker
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