Futurist Matt Carmichael, Senior Vice President at Ipsos Global Trends & Foresight and Editor of What the Future, delivered an insightful keynote about navigating uncertainty and planning for the future titled The Future of Risk at the 2024 CEIR Predict Conference held on 12-13 September.
Carmichael began with a refreshing admission: as a futurist, he doesn’t actually predict the future. Instead, his work focuses on understanding possible futures and preparing for them. He shared a personal anecdote about anxiety, relating how his teenagers often ask him how he manages to speak publicly without nervousness. His answer? Preparation. While he can’t control everything (like his wife setting the car clock ahead), he can plan for contingencies. This philosophy forms the foundation of his approach to future planning.
Carmichael emphasized the importance of understanding “known unknowns,” a concept borrowed from a famous speech by Donald Rumsfeld. He outlined how his company, Ipsos, approaches future thinking through its theory of change framework. This includes analyzing macro forces (like climate change and demographic shifts), monitoring signals (such as new patents or policies), and tracking shifts in societal values. He illustrated this with a fascinating historical example: Charles Joseph Menard’s visualization of Napoleon’s march to Moscow, which demonstrated how poor foresight regarding weather led to catastrophic results.
Carmichael also delved into several key areas of change affecting events and businesses.
Population Dynamics
Our aging workforce presents unique challenges for event planning, potentially requiring venues to accommodate both 28-year-olds and 82-year-olds simultaneously. The rise of the “1099 economy” (contract work) is also changing how professional development and conference attendance are funded.
Technology
While AI and automation present opportunities, they also create anxiety. Carmichael noted that people simultaneously believe technology will solve our problems while destroying our lives – a fascinating contradiction in human nature. Major tech companies are already preparing for massive workforce disruption, planning to retrain 100 million workers.
Climate Change
Rising temperatures and increasing weather disruptions may force events to reconsider traditional venues and timing. Phoenix in July might become untenable, while increased flight turbulence could drive a trend toward more regional events.
Trust and Disinformation
In an era of synthetic media and declining trust, in-person events might gain new importance as venues where people can verify authenticity with their own eyes.
Carmichael also touched on pandemic preparedness, noting that another pandemic isn’t a question of “if,” but “when.” The political polarization around health measures suggests future outbreaks could be even more disruptive to events and gatherings.
He emphasized the importance of brand risk in our polarized world, where consumers increasingly align purchases with their values. This affects everything from speaker selection to sponsor relationships and venue choices.
Carmichael concluded with practical advice for activating research and planning for the future: curate information carefully, tell compelling stories, run workshops and give teams time to think creatively. Different stakeholders need different approaches – what works for an innovation team won’t necessarily resonate with the C-suite.
The key takeaway? While we can’t predict the future, we can imagine possible tomorrows and prepare for them. This forward-thinking approach leads to better research, better questions, and ultimately, better preparation for whatever the future might bring.
